As you know, Fairness for Fire Victims has been working to secure a durability study to assess the impact of opening the California Wildfire Fund (CWF) to victims of the Northern California Wildfires of 2015-2018. This step is key to proving whether or not the Fund can remain financially viable if used to cover the victims’ $6 billion shortfall from the Fire Victims Trust (FVT).
Today we are thrilled to announce that Fairness for Fire Victims was able to secure an independent third party to complete this study, and the results are better than we could have hoped.
If the California Wildfire Fund were to pay $6 billion to FVT victims, it would remain nearly identical in durability to what it is today.
This independent study was completed by replicating the 2019 forecast developed for the California Earthquake Authority to ensure all modeling was done according to the same factors. The study produced 1,000 simulations of the Fund’s assets and liabilities through 2035 in the event of three distinct scenarios:
No FVT payment
A $6 billion FVT payment
A $5 billion payment
The study projected a change in durability of less than 3.5% across all three scenarios. In other words, the California Wildfire Fund (CWF) would remain funded – to a nearly exact level – through 2035 while still allowing victims of the Northern California wildfires of 2015-2019 to be made whole.
How could this be? There are a number of contributing factors: The CWF was intended to remain solvent for 10-15 years. From its inception in 2019 through 2023, no claim payments have been made to the Fund. And there is only one claim scheduled to be made in 2024, for $600 million. As a result, the fund is fully able to meet the needs of the FVT claimants.
Now that we have this study in hand, we are presenting its findings to the California legislature in our effort to secure a legislative fix to AB 1054.
We hope this news has you feeling optimistic coming out of the holiday weekend. We are certainly grateful, and hope to share more positive news in the weeks and months ahead.
In Solidarity,
Fairness for Fire Victims Coalition